Even if a causal relationship is assumed, educational attainment does not explain all the variance in longevity, which is the implicit assumption of the deterministic translation used in the paper. Second, an assumption is made that lost years of schooling can be directly translated into lost years of life. First, an Argentinian study conducted on children in the 70s and 80s during teacher strikes, which explicitly warned against using its results causally, is taken as directly representative of US children learning from home in 2020.

The assumptions in the paper do not bear weight. This reverses the main finding of the paper, with school closures then costing ~0.65 million YLL, compared to the estimate for COVID-19 of 2.93 million. The number for Clark and Royer (2013) reads 1 (0.94-1.07) but should properly be 1.022 (1.01-1.034).Īdditionally, the paper specifies the use of an inverse-variance model with extra weight to US studies which is mathematically impossible given the confidence bounds of the included research: a study with confidence bounds (0.08-0.77) for relative risk is weighted 2,790x higher than a study with bounds (0.94-1.07).Ĭorrecting the errors and running an inverse-variance model results in the RRR decreasing from 25% to 3%. Further, it was corrected in a 2010 erratum which brought the correct value to 1.028. Mazumder (2008), has a transcription error: the value in the meta-analysis by CVZ is 0.65 (-0-1.3), instead of the correct 0.89 (0.743-1.034). The Lleras-Muney (2005) figure is the largest reduction in this paper, which reports that the estimates varying between 0.42-0.67 were not statistically distinguishable. The meta-analysis performed by the authors drives a key figure within the paper - a 25% reduction in relative risk of death across the lifespan per year of schooling. As the arguments presented therein have immediately influenced public debate and policy decisions around the globe, a delineation of these is necessary to maintain the fidelity of the debate around the complicated benefits and drawbacks around school closure to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The paper by Christakis, Van Cleve, and Zimmerman (CVZ) contains numerical, statistical, and methodological flaws.

Shared Decision Making and Communication.Scientific Discovery and the Future of Medicine.Health Care Economics, Insurance, Payment.Clinical Implications of Basic Neuroscience.Challenges in Clinical Electrocardiography.

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